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The International Energy Agency ( IEA) released its 2025 World Energy Outlook ( WEO ) report, softening its stance on oil demand, which was previously expected to peak soon, and forecasting that oil consumption will continue to increase until 2050. The International Energy Agency (IEA ) released its latest World Energy Outlook ( WEO ) report on November 12, 2025, forecasting a 13% increase in oil consumption by 2050, depending on the projected slower growth rate of electric vehicle (EV) purchases. This differs from the 2024 forecast, which predicted that oil demand would remain the same or decline over the next decade.
The IEA began producing forecasting reports in 1974, following the 1973 oil crisis, when OPEC imposed sanctions on oil exports to countries supporting Israel, such as Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, and the United States. Since then, the IEA’s forecasts have been used as a benchmark for policy planning and investment by governments and energy companies worldwide.
The latest report, published in 2025, divides future possibilities into two approaches:
- Current Policies Scenario ( CPS ).
- Stated Policies Scenario ( STEPS ).
The ‘Current Policies Scenario ( CPS )’ suggests that no changes to energy policies will be made beyond the existing ones. This scenario projects oil consumption to increase from approximately 100 million barrels per day to 113 million barrels per day by 2050 , a 13% increase, depending on a slower growth rate in electric vehicle (EV) purchases.
The CPS (Cost Percentage Price) possibility was not included in considerations for over 5 years due to volatility in energy markets and rapid policy changes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Its reassessment in 2025 represents a new long-term valuation of oil and a shift in the IEA ‘s direction . This also occurred during the administration of US President Donald Trump, who favored fossil fuels and attacked renewable energy sources.
Previously, in September, the IEA stated that billions of dollars needed to invest in new oil and natural gas supplies, but this was criticized by Republican lawmakers who argued that such investments did not align with climate change goals and would lead to budget cuts for the agency. The report also outlines the ‘ Stated Policies Scenario ( STEPS ), ‘ which is built from a broader policy perspective than the CPS , taking into account policies that have been formally proposed but not yet ratified. It also offers a more agile viewpoint in terms of energy technology and market trends, allowing for slightly faster introduction of new energy technologies than the CPS. STEPS forecasts that oil demand will peak around 2030 and oil consumption will reach 96.9 million barrels per day in 2050, an increase from the previous estimate of 93.1 million barrels per day.
The report also outlines the ‘ Stated Policies Scenario ( STEPS ), ‘ which is built from a broader policy perspective than the CPS , taking into account policies that have been formally proposed but not yet ratified. It also offers a more agile viewpoint in terms of energy technology and market trends, allowing for slightly faster introduction of new energy technologies than the CPS. STEPS forecasts that oil demand will peak around 2030 and oil consumption will reach 96.9 million barrels per day in 2050, an increase from the previous estimate of 93.1 million barrels per day.
However, the report did not prioritize which approach was more likely to occur.
The IEA ‘s latest report aligns with emerging trends across the energy industry, highlighting the complexity of the energy transition , which is taking longer than initially anticipated. In September, BP , one of the world’s largest energy companies, postponed its forecast that oil consumption could peak as early as this year, stating that oil demand would continue to grow for the remainder of the decade, projecting consumption to reach 103.4 million barrels per day in the next five years.
This latest analysis may cause serious concern among delegates from nearly 200 countries attending the 30th Climate Summit, or COP30 , in Belém, Brazil, held from November 10-21, as the CPS (Cost of Perception) trends conflict with the climate change targets currently being negotiated.
Two models, scaled to EV specifications.
According to the IEA report , the CPS ( Cost Percentage Percentage of Sales) scenario projects global oil consumption to increase from approximately 100 million barrels per day to 113 million barrels per day by 2050 , as the proportion of electric vehicles (EVs) in global car sales is expected to remain stable from 2035 onwards. While the STEPS scenario predicts that the proportion of EV sales will double by 2030 and increase by more than 50% in the following five years, the CPS scenario hinders the growth of wind and solar power, resulting in a stronger outlook for natural gas. Both possible routes would have different impacts on the global oil market and prices. For the CPS, higher demand would help absorb the excess demand for oil and liquefied natural gas ( LNG) more quickly, leading to oil prices soaring to approximately US$ 90 per barrel (around 2,900 baht) by 2035. However, meeting that demand will require new projects capable of producing around 25 million barrels of oil per day, and this may have to be sourced from suppliers currently under sanctions. The IEA ‘s new assessment has been well-received by OPEC oil producers, who have repeatedly attacked the IEA and accused it of promoting an “anti-oil narrative,” as OPEC , with Saudi Arabia as its de facto leader, forecasts that oil demand will continue to grow until 2050. The OPEC Secretariat in Vienna stated on its website that the IEA ‘s audacious claims in previous reports contradicted reality. The IEA’s prediction that the oil peak was approaching was merely slogan.
Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director, stated that the primary reason for presenting these two new possibilities stems from the increasing uncertainty in the political, economic, and energy contexts. Regardless of which trends prove correct, the world ultimately faces numerous risks, ranging from oil sanctions and uncertainty surrounding Russia’s natural gas supply to the risk of cyberattacks on electricity infrastructure.
“Global energy security is facing a multitude of threats unlike anything we’ve ever seen before,” Birol said.
The current demand for oil and natural gas proves that the path to net – zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 will be more difficult than previously predicted and will have a significant environmental impact. The CPS (Cost Percentage of Global Temperatures) scenario indicates a global temperature increase of almost 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, while the STEPS ( Step-to-Step) scenario projects a global temperature increase of almost 2.5 degrees Celsius.
Both options indicate a level of climate change that scientists consider extremely dangerous.
Read more at: https://www.prachachat.net/world-news/news-1919778