Transportations Warn Government that if Diesel Prices Drop Below 30 Baht, the Economy Will be Badly Affected.

The president of the Thai Transport Federation analyzed the cost equation of Thai logistics in a wartime situation, reflecting on the problems in diesel fuel management that affect grassroots businesses and the agricultural sector. He urged a review of the ban on filling fuel into jerrycans, which is becoming an obstacle to agricultural machinery and community services. He appealed to the government to use empathy and listen to the public when making energy policy decisions, emphasizing that diesel is the backbone of the logistics system. If the government fails to control the grassroots level, the impact of rising living costs and inflation will become a crisis that further erodes the purchasing power of Thai people in the long term.

“Prachachat Business” presents the perspective of Dr. Thongyu Kongkhan, President of the Federation of Land Transport of Thailand and leader of over 13 trucking associations nationwide, on the day he submitted an urgent letter to the Ministry of Energy proposing what he calls the “only way out” for the transport sector before it’s too late.

 

8 life-saving measures: The government must stop hedging its bets and using emotions with the people.

     On March 6, 2026, the Federation of Land Transport, in conjunction with a network of 13 other associations, issued eight demands to the Minister of Energy. The core issue was opposition to the deregulation of diesel fuel prices. Dr. Thongyu stated, questioning the government’s timeframe, “The 15-day price freeze announced by the government is a short-term, insincere solution. The government should empathize with the people and extend the freeze for at least 30 days to allow businesses to regroup amidst this price war.” In addition, they proposed immediately ” reducing the excise tax on diesel fuel by at least 3 baht per liter” to alleviate the burden on the Fuel Fund, which is currently in a critical state.

 

Legal inconsistencies that “favor large corporations and leave small businesses to die.”

     Dr. Thongyu illustrated the legal loopholes in the Fuel Oil Trading Act that lead to severe structural unfairness in pricing. “Currently, the government freezes diesel prices only for major oil retailers under Section 7. But do you know that transportation operators with hundreds or thousands of trucks, who have their own fuel tanks, have to buy fuel at 40-50 satang per liter more than the pump price? This is an inconsistency that really harms the workers. If we had ten thousand trucks queuing up at a gas station down the street, traffic would be chaotic, and the gas station wouldn’t accept them. So why doesn’t the government make it a single price nationwide, both at the pump and at fuel depots?”  Furthermore, this does not include the demand for transparency under Section 11 of the Fuel Oil Trading Act, which requires the government to disclose fuel oil statistics. “In December 2024, we exported a massive 1.4 billion liters of oil, but the data for January and February has vanished into thin air. Who benefits from this secret? Thai people have to pay high prices for oil, while we export it to feed our neighbors?”

 

A knockout blow from history: “Order an immediate halt to oil exports.”

     At a boiling point, Dr. Thongyu proposed a legal tactic, reverting to the approach used during the time of Field Marshal Thanom Kittikachorn in 1973.m“The government has full legal authority under the Ministry’s regulations to temporarily suspend the export of refined oil products for 60-90 days in order to reserve oil for domestic use in emergencies. We must stockpile oil for our own people first, not allow oil corporations and refineries to profit from exports while the people in the country are suffering.” Dr. Thongyu also agreed with the idea of ​​Mr. Peerapan Salirathavipak, the Minister of Energy, that prices must be frozen ‘without compensation’ because the oil currently being used is from a 2-month advance stockpile. “Don’t claim that today’s price increase is due to yesterday’s war. The oil in stock, with its old production costs, must be used for the people, not for the refineries’ profits.”

 

The echoes from “gallons of oil” when the government overlooks the small gears in the machine.

     The measure prohibiting filling fuel into tanks or gallons to prevent hoarding became an issue that Dr. Thongyu reflected on with deep emotion, stating that it truly affects the “grassroots.” “Imagine farmers who own tractors, combine harvesters, or other machinery in their palm oil plantations. These vehicles don’t have registration, so they can’t drive to gas stations. When the government bans filling up gallons with fuel, where will they get the energy to make a living? Even undertakers in temples in rural areas who still use oil-fired furnaces for cremation need fuel in gallons. This measure is clearly cutting off a means of livelihood for the poor”.

 

The iron rule of “1 baht : 3%”: the final ceiling before the domino effect collapses.

     Regarding the transportation sector, Dr. Thongyu confirmed that the federation has clear criteria for adjusting transportation fees. Currently, the acceptable diesel price for operators is no more than 30 baht per liter. If the price remains below this level, the group of operators will not adjust transportation fees. However, if the diesel price increases, there will be a formula for adjusting transportation fees proportionally. For every 1 baht increase in diesel price, transportation fees must increase by 3%. He gave the example that if the diesel price increases by 5 baht, transportation fees will immediately increase by approximately 15%.

However, he emphasized that adjusting shipping fees was a last resort he didn’t want to use, because as soon as shipping fees increased, the price of all goods would rise accordingly. “The acceptable price ceiling is 30 baht per liter. If it stays below that, we’ll grit our teeth and not raise transportation costs. But if it exceeds that, our formula is ‘1 baht : 3%’. That means for every 1 baht increase in fuel price, transportation costs will increase by 3% immediately. Or, if it increases by 5 baht, transportation costs will increase by 15%. Now, imagine how much the prices of instant noodles, soap, toothpaste, and other consumer goods will skyrocket?” Dr. Thongyu warned that this is a “domino effect” that will spread to the construction industry, such as bricks, stone, clay, and sand, as well as tourism, and ultimately lead to severe inflation that will force the government to raise interest rates to quell the problem, further exacerbating the public’s lack of purchasing power.

Warning: Four engines of the economy are slumping.

Dr. Thongyu concluded by warning of a “paralysis” state for the Thai economy if all four economic engines stop working, as follows:

  1. ) Exports: Losing competitiveness due to soaring shipping and transportation costs that surpass competitors.
  2. )Tourism: Both Thai and foreign tourists will reduce their travel due to increased fares for buses, boats, and planes.
  3. Investment: Investors will lack confidence, causing a delay in infrastructure projects.
  4. Large-scale infrastructure projects , including land bridges and high-speed rail.
  5. Purchasing power: If inflation is severe, people’s incomes will remain the same, but they will be able to buy less goods. This could force the government to raise interest rates to curb inflation, which would further exacerbate the crisis.

“Diesel fuel is a ‘major cost’ for all sectors, including industry, transportation, and services. If diesel prices rise, other energy costs, such as electricity (from both LNG and NGV), will also increase. Therefore, the government must use transportation cost adjustments as a ‘ last resort’ and keep diesel prices under control to maintain confidence and the national economy,” Dr. Thongyu concluded.

 

Read more at: https://www.prachachat.net/economy/news-1975969