{"id":2901,"date":"2026-08-27T07:13:59","date_gmt":"2026-08-27T07:13:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.patcharaproduct.co.th\/?p=2901"},"modified":"2026-08-27T07:13:59","modified_gmt":"2026-08-27T07:13:59","slug":"analyses-long-term-direction-of-the-global-oil-market-after-the-us-iran-agreement","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.patcharaproduct.co.th\/en\/analyses-long-term-direction-of-the-global-oil-market-after-the-us-iran-agreement\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyses Long-Term Direction of the Global Oil Market After the US-Iran Agreement."},"content":{"rendered":"

Following the formal signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran on June 17th, analysts point out that although global oil prices have fallen, pressure on crude oil reserves remains severe. Meanwhile, the IEA warns of a potential major oil glut in 2027 as oil from the Middle East re-enters the market. <\/b>Oil prices fell after the United States and Iran formally signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on June 17, 2026, which is now in effect, ending the Iran-Uran war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and lifting US sanctions on Iranian oil.<\/strong><\/p>\n

On June 17, U.S. President Donald Trump signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) formally ending the war with Iran at the Palace of Versailles in France. The Iranian side was represented by President Masoud Peseshkir, according to photographs released by state media. One of the key objectives of the MOU is to reopen shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. <\/span>Harris Kurshid, Chief Investment Officer of Chicago-based fund and investment management firm Karobaar Capital LP,<\/strong> said the easy part was reaching an agreement, but the harder part was considering how much of the disruption of the past few months would become a permanent change.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c The market often thinks that reopening means a new beginning, but some of the changes that occurred during the disruption may last longer than many people anticipate, \u201d Kurshid said.<\/b><\/p>\n

Data from Signal Group, a shipping and tanker fleet management company, indicates that approximately 31 large oil tankers, capable of carrying around 62 million barrels of crude oil, are stranded in the Persian Gulf and will sail out when shipping lanes reopen. This could cause a sudden surge of oil into Asia.<\/span><\/p>\n

The oil tanker will take approximately one week to transport the oil to India, or three weeks to East Asia.<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 The US financial services firm Goldman Sachs expects oil exports from the Persian Gulf to return to normal by the end of July, although export volumes may only recover to 70% of pre-war levels, and producers are still looking for alternative shipping routes. <\/span>The United Arab Emirates (UAE)<\/strong> is one of the countries looking for alternative routes. On June 17, UAE Foreign Trade Minister Thani Al Sayudi said the country would end its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, whether the strait is open or not, by expanding ports east of Dibba, Fujairah, and Khorfaqan, located on the Gulf of Oman coast, outside the Strait of Hormuz. <\/span>While lower oil prices reduce the likelihood of widespread inflation, this isn’t the only positive sign. A report from New York Life Investment Management indicates that oil prices remain above pre-conflict levels, transportation will take time to return to normal, and inventories and strategic reserves still need to be replenished. <\/span>Pressure on crude oil reserves remains severe, with the Cushing oil storage facility, one of the largest commercial oil storage centers in the United States, having fallen to approximately 20 million barrels, considered the minimum operational level by oil traders.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Meanwhile, petroleum product prices also declined in line with crude oil prices. Daily data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) showed that the average price of gasoline across the United States fell to $4.025 per gallon from a peak of $4.564 per gallon in May. <\/span>Carolyn Kissen, associate dean of the Center for International Affairs (CGA)<\/strong> at New York University, said that Trump wants gasoline prices to fall before the midterm elections in November, and he will accept any deal, no matter the cost. <\/span>The International Energy Agency (IEA)<\/strong> released its latest monthly oil market report on June 17th, stating that a permanent end to the conflict would result in a significant increase in oil supplies, leading to a major oil glut by 2027, with supply exceeding demand by 5.05 million barrels per day as Middle Eastern oil re-enters the market.<\/span><\/p>\n

The IEA forecasts that global oil supply will decline by an average of 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026, leaving a supply of 102.4 million barrels per day, before recovering to 110.3 million barrels per day in 2027.<\/b><\/p>\n

\u201cEven though demand for crude oil and petroleum products has fallen sharply, reserves in the system continue to decline at a record rapid pace. Global oil reserves have decreased by an average of 3.8 million barrels per day since the start of the war. Further declines in the coming months could push global oil reserves to a record low before the market balance shifts to a surplus by the end of the year,\u201d the IEA stated. <\/span>Another factor pressuring the oil market is expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) may raise interest rates later this year to control inflation, which could slow economic growth and reduce demand for oil.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Read more at: https:\/\/www.prachachat.net\/world\/news-2024247<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Following the formal signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran on June 17th, analysts point out that although global oil prices have fallen, pressure on crude oil reserves remains severe. Meanwhile, the IEA warns of a potential major oil glut in 2027 as oil from the Middle East re-enters […]\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2899,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nAnalyses Long-Term Direction of the Global Oil Market After the US-Iran Agreement. - patcharaproduct<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.patcharaproduct.co.th\/en\/analyses-long-term-direction-of-the-global-oil-market-after-the-us-iran-agreement\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analyses Long-Term Direction of the Global Oil Market After the US-Iran Agreement. - patcharaproduct\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Following the formal signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the United States and Iran on June 17th, analysts point out that although global oil prices have fallen, pressure on crude oil reserves remains severe. 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