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Reconstructing the Cracks and Next Steps for OPEC After the UAE’s Exclusion: Academics view Saudi Arabia, the leading member, as backed into a corner, suggesting a major policy review of the organization is necessary. This might involve seeking support from the United States or leveraging Russia to prop up its dominance. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced its withdrawal from OPEC, the organization of the world’s major oil exporting countries, and OPEC+, which includes Russia, officially effective today (May 1, 2026). This move comes amidst unrest in the Middle East stemming from the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, and further shakes the already fragile global oil supply chain. Although the UAE was not the first to withdraw from OPEC, its departure has had a significant impact. It is one of the top five oil-producing countries in the group, and its withdrawal comes at a time when the world is facing an energy crisis stemming from the Iran-Iran conflict. This has led to speculation that this could be the “beginning of the end” for OPEC. If more members withdraw, it could potentially lead to its eventual collapse.
Economic Factors: UAE Considers Oil Production Before Value Declines
The Thai Rath Online special investigative team discussed this issue with Dr. Sarawut Aree, Director of the Center for Muslim Studies, Institute of Asian Studies, Chulalongkorn University. He revealed that the UAE’s withdrawal is not a new issue; there have been attempts to withdraw from OPEC for a long time. The primary reason is the quota system for oil production, which limits the UAE to only about 3 million barrels per day, preventing it from reaching its full potential of 5 million barrels per day, despite the massive investments the UAE has made.
Secondly, the global energy trend is shifting towards cleaner or alternative energy sources, and oil will play a less significant role and have a decreasing value in the future. The UAE recognizes this trend and therefore wants to produce oil while it still has value, especially now that prices have skyrocketed due to the war. Coupled with the damage suffered by the UAE from the Iranian attack, there is a need for funds to repair infrastructure and to drive UAE Vision 2031 , a national strategic and development plan that aims to free the UAE from dependence on oil and become a global economic, technological, and sustainable hub.
Although the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping route, is currently closed due to the Iran-Iran war, and the UAE cannot completely transport oil through the Fujairah pipeline to the Gulf of Oman without passing through the Strait of Hormuz, it is believed that the UAE views this as a short-term problem. Ultimately, the strait will reopen, and leaving OPEC will be a preparation for increasing production and building additional pipelines, or planning to cope with the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being closed again in the future.
Middle Eastern political factors: The UAE’s rift with Saudi Arabia.
Although the UAE’s efforts to leave OPEC have been ongoing for years, Saudi Arabia, as the group’s leading power, has consistently negotiated and resisted. However, in recent years, relations between the two countries have deteriorated significantly due to issues of expanding influence in the Middle East. Dr. Sarawut revealed that the UAE aspires to be one of the superpowers in the Middle East, but due to its small size, its strategy is to expand its influence through various networks, similar to Iran, particularly in countries with political problems, such as “weak states” or “failed states,” by providing them with funding or weapons. This is one of the points of contention with Saudi Arabia, the elder statesman who wants to see the Middle East remain strong and not divided, as this would lead to regional instability and ultimately affect Saudi Arabia.
A clear example of this conflict is occurring in Yemen. Although both countries cooperate as Arab allies to fight the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, the UAE supports the separatist force known as the Southern Transitional Council (STC), while Saudi Arabia supports the internationally recognized Yemeni government. Prior to the war with Iran, Saudi Arabia had already attacked weapons and equipment supplied by the UAE to the southern separatist forces and explicitly stated that the UAE was prohibited from doing so. Furthermore, the UAE and Saudi Arabia compete economically and in trade, both striving to diversify risk and move their economies into the post-oil era. The UAE took the lead in attracting foreign investors, and later Saudi Arabia also made similar efforts, attempting to attract UAE investors to invest in Saudi Arabia instead.
Superpower Factors: The UAE Appeals to the United States and Israel.
Another point is that the UAE has close ties with the United States and Israel. In the past, US President Donald Trump has consistently criticized OPEC’s role, accusing it of taking advantage of the global community and the United States.The UAE’s withdrawal is seen by many as partly to appease the United States and Israel. Some sources have revealed an agreement between the three countries in which the UAE requested protection from the US and Israel against threats from Iran, and recently, Israel has sent additional air defense systems to the UAE.
“I think there’s collusion between superpowers like the United States, the UAE, and Israel in pushing for the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC. This will create difficulties for Saudi Arabia as the leading power, because if it can’t control oil prices, its bargaining power will be greatly diminished. And if more withdrawals occur in the future, OPEC will no longer have any bargaining power in the global energy market.”
Is it so severe that it could lead to the collapse of OPEC?
Dr. Sarawut believes that whether the UAE’s withdrawal will lead to the collapse of OPEC depends on how much benefit or success the UAE gains from the withdrawal. This will be the indicator for other member countries to decide whether to remain in the organization or withdraw. In the past, OPEC’s power has steadily diminished. From once controlling more than half of the world’s production, it has gradually decreased to less than 40%. If more countries withdraw until OPEC has no bargaining power left, there will be no need for them to remain a group, as participation in OPEC is still subject to production quotas, which some countries may consider disadvantageous or not worthwhile.
If OPEC loses its bargaining power, the country that will rise to prominence is the United States , which currently has the highest daily oil production in the world, combined with its control over Venezuela, the largest oil producer, and now with the UAE adding to its power base. “There is a possibility that OPEC could collapse, but it probably won’t happen anytime soon. During the transition period, I think oil prices will be very volatile, but after a while, we might see lower oil prices as more production enters the market.”
Saudi Arabia may have to choose between the United States and Russia for OPEC’s survival.
Regarding how Saudi Arabia can maintain its status as the regional powerhouse and preserve the balance of power within OPEC, Dr. Sarawut believes that Saudi Arabia needs to review its OPEC quota policy to ensure that member countries, especially those facing challenges, benefit. “The OPEC member countries, numbering over a dozen, face different problems. African countries face different challenges than those in the Middle East or Latin America. Now, Saudi Arabia needs to study the problems of these countries and use the mechanisms of controlling global oil prices to benefit or solve the problems of its member states.”
Another interesting approach is to approach a major oil power. One such power is the United States, with whom Saudi Arabia has had a long-standing good relationship, although recent problems have arisen due to the US’s inability to provide security for Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia might need to approach the US and propose a deal to help support OPEC. If this is successful, there is a possibility of proceeding further.
Another perspective is to attract Russia , another major oil producer in the world, from its OPEC+ alliance to become a full member and join forces to consolidate power in determining the direction or policy of global energy. Regarding the role of the other superpower, China, in this matter, Dr. Sarawut believes that China, as a major oil consumer, may be another country trying to help Saudi Arabia maintain OPEC, rather than trying to destroy it, because China wants to see stability in global energy policies and prices.
The impact of the “Iran War”.
The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC impacts the unity of the Middle East, clearly dividing it into three factions: the UAE aligns itself with the US and Israel, Iran and its allies, and finally, Saudi Arabia and its regional allies, which prefers not to side with any party and avoids war. “The UAE’s withdrawal may give the US and Israel hope that a Middle Eastern nation will stand by them in a war, which would diminish the unity or overall sentiment of the Middle East as a nation that does not want war. This would have an impact on the war, but not immediately.” Regarding the future prospects of the Iran-Iran conflict, Dr. Sarawut believes it will likely remain unresolved for some time before an agreement is reached and the Strait of Hormuz can be reopened. However, the root causes of the problem remain and could reignite at any moment.
For Iran, it is unlikely they will agree on its nuclear program, but the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would significantly impact its economy. Meanwhile, the United States has political timelines, including Trump’s domestic popularity ratings, inflation issues, midterm elections, and hosting major events like the World Cup, all of which are pressuring President Trump to make a quick decision. “It’s also worrying if the US chooses to continue with the economic blockade of Iran, as it could lead to a confrontation, which Iran might not tolerate and might use other cards it has at its disposal in the Middle East, such as in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. It’s still unclear how long this will last, but I think things should become clearer by May.”
Furthermore, President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-May, a significant development. It is expected that both the US and Iran will seek a resolution where both sides can declare victory. The US might declare victory for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran might declare victory for surviving and resisting a superpower. Therefore, close monitoring is necessary in the coming months.
Read more at: https://www.thairath.co.th/scoop/interview/2930139